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The 2024 presidential election will be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes across swing states.

Nate Silver·June 2026
False— Resolved June 10, 2026
How we verified this claim
The 2024 election saw a more decisive outcome than predicted, with margins exceeding 100,000 votes in key swing states.
How we reached this verdict
The 2024 election saw a more decisive outcome than predicted, with margins exceeding 100,000 votes in key swing states.
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