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“The 2024 presidential election will be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes across swing states.”

Nate Silver·June 2026
❌False— Resolved June 10, 2026
How we verified this claim▾
The 2024 election saw a more decisive outcome than predicted, with margins exceeding 100,000 votes in key swing states.
How we reached this verdict▾
The 2024 election saw a more decisive outcome than predicted, with margins exceeding 100,000 votes in key swing states.
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