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Bitcoin will fail as an inflation hedge and lose more than 75% of its value during the next major economic stress period.

Nassim Taleb·June 2026
True— Resolved June 10, 2026
How we verified this claim
Bitcoin lost approximately 77% of its value from its November 2021 peak (~$69k) to its November 2022 trough (~$15.7k) during the Fed's inflation-fighting rate hiking cycle, confirming it did not serve as an inflation hedge.
How we reached this verdict
Bitcoin lost approximately 77% of its value from its November 2021 peak (~$69k) to its November 2022 trough (~$15.7k) during the Fed's inflation-fighting rate hiking cycle, confirming it did not serve as an inflation hedge.
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