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A major financial institution will fail due to cryptocurrency exposure by 2025.

Nassim Taleb·June 2026
True— Resolved June 10, 2026
How we verified this claim
FTX collapsed in November 2022, triggering failures at Celsius, Voyager, and BlockFi. Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, both heavily exposed to crypto, failed in March 2023. Taleb's warning proved accurate.
How we reached this verdict
FTX collapsed in November 2022, triggering failures at Celsius, Voyager, and BlockFi. Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, both heavily exposed to crypto, failed in March 2023. Taleb's warning proved accurate.
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